On December 15th, 2020, CONAB (Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento – Brazilian National Supply Company) published its third data survey on the Brazilian Sugar Cane Harvest in the 2020/21 season[1], which indicates significant increases in the harvested area, productivity and, consequently, production.
The drop in world sugar production and the reduction in the final stocks of the 2019/20 crop resulted in higher prices in late 2019 and early 2020. Taking advantage of the favorable rate scenario for exports and rising international prices, many Brazilian mills intensified negotiations in the future market, which contributed to the increase in the advance sale of sugar in the 2020/21 harvest.
Based on their statistics from April to November this year, Brazilian sugar exports increased by 79.2% in comparison with the same period in the previous cycle. Four months before the end of the 2020/21 harvest, Brazilian sugar exports reached around 23.7 million tons, exceeding the amount of sugar exported throughout the 2019/20 harvest, as well as in the 2018/19 harvest. The expectation is that at the end of the current harvest, Brazilian sugar exports will surpass the record observed in the 2016/17 season, when the country exported around 28.3 million tons.
SUMMARY:
The Center/South Region, which is already in the final harvest stage, expects a production of 610.655 million tons of sugarcane, representing almost 92% of the national production. The leading states in this region are São Paulo (the main producing state), Goiás (the second largest producer), Minas Gerais (the third largest producer) and Mato Grosso do Sul (the fourth largest producer).
The North/Northeast Region, on the other hand, harvests most of the volume between August and March. The projection is that 54.449 million tons of sugarcane will be harvested, indicating an increase of 3% in comparison to what was produced last year.
BY-PRODUCTS:
Total sugar cane ethanol: the production estimate is 29.8 billion liters, presenting a reduction of 12.3% compared to the previous harvest.
Anhydrous ethanol from sugar cane: the production estimate is 9.6 billion liters, presenting a reduction of 5.6% compared to the previous harvest.
Hydrated ethanol from sugar cane: the production estimate is 20.3 billion liters, presenting a reduction of 15.1% compared to the previous harvest.
Sugar: the production estimate is 41.8 million tons, presenting an increase of 40.4% compared to the previous harvest.
SUGAR PRODUCTION:
The lack of rain faced by sugarcane crops, particularly in the Center/South Region, brought losses to productivity levels. On the other hand, increases in TRS (total recoverable sugar) levels were recorded.
North/Northeast Region: increased the destination of ATR/TRS for sugar production, reaching 47.4% this year (against 43% in the previous year).
Center/South Region: increased the destination of ATR/TRS for sugar production, reaching 46.1% this year (against 34.2% in the previous year).
In this harvest, the Center/South Region should be responsible for 92.4% of the total sugar produced, while the North/Northeast Region should be responsible for the other 7.6%. The states of São Paulo, Minas Gerais, Goiás, Paraná and Alagoas remain the largest national sugar producers.
São Paulo is expected to produce 26.4 million tons of sugar, an increase of 43.1% over the previous year.
Minas Gerais is expected to produce 4.7 million tons of sugar, an increase of 47.2% over the previous year.
Goiás is expected to produce 2.5 million tons of sugar, an increase of 42.4% over the previous year.
Paraná is expected to produce 2.6 million tons of sugar, an increase of 17.9% over the previous year.
Alagoas is expected to produce 1.5 million tons of sugar, an increase of 8% over the previous year.
[1] CONAB – Sugar Cane Harvest bulletins: https://www.conab.gov.br/info-agro/safras/cana/boletim-da-safra-de-cana-de-acucar
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